Prof. Jayanth R. Varma's Financial Markets Blog

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Prof. Jayanth R. Varma's Financial Markets Blog, A Blog on Financial Markets and Their Regulation

© Prof. Jayanth R. Varma
jrvarma@iima.ac.in

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Sun, 17 Sep 2017

Bonds markets are not different

Institutional investors have long argued that bond markets are very different from equity markets and need OTC trading venues because of their peculiar characteristics. More than a decade ago, I remember receiving massive push back for suggesting that an exchange traded government bond market could be better for India than the recommendations of the RH Patil Committee.

In recent years, however, the structure of bond markets in the developed world has started moving closer to that of the equity market. Post crisis reforms like higher capital requirements and the Dodd Frank Act have led dealers to reduce their market making activities. Other players including hedge funds, algorithmic and high frequency traders as well as electronic trading platforms have stepped into the breach. The SEC study on Access to Capital and Market Liquidity submitted to the US Congress last month provides a great deal of evidence on the ability of the new market structure to deliver reasonable levels of liquidity.

Meanwhile, a recent study (Abudy and Wohl, “Corporate Bond Trading on a Limit Order Book Exchange”, July 2017) showed that the exchange traded corporate bond market in Tel Aviv Stock Exchange in Israel is more liquid than the OTC corporate bond market in the US (both in terms of narrower spreads and lower price dispersion). This is so despite the fact that the market for stocks in Israel is less liquid than in the US. An exchange traded corporate bond market in the US could therefore be expected to have even narrower spreads than in Israel.

We should stop doubting the ability of pre and post trade transparency to improve liquidity across asset classes.

Posted at 17:31 on Sun, 17 Sep 2017     View/Post Comments (0)     permanent link


Wed, 13 Sep 2017

Should Equifax be shut down?

The US and India are among the few countries that still retain the death penalty for people, and they should have no qualms about imposing the death penalty on companies. Equifax might be a good candidate for this drastic action after the massive data hack that has been described as the worst leak of personal info ever.

There is probably no criminal activity involved, and so nobody can be sent to jail. Fines and penalties will doubtless be imposed, but companies like Equifax tend to think of any fines as simply the cost of doing business and do not find it a sufficient deterrent. They will continue to spend too little on cyber security. There is little that consumers can do to discipline them either. Adam Levetin at Credit Slips hits the nail on the hand:

Equifax didn’t lose customer records. It lost consumer records. That’s an important distinction, and it goes to the heart of the problem with the CRAs. Consumers can, in theory, avoid harm from a data security breach at a merchant by not doing business with the merchant.

...

It’s not possible for a consumer to withhold business from a CRA because the consumer does not have a business relationship with the CRA. And this is the key problem: we have a consumer financial services market in which consumers cannot vote with their pocketbooks.

A threat far bigger than fines and penalties is needed to force financial firms to take security of consumers seriously. The only credible threat is that of shutting down the company and simultaneously imposing a penalty large enough to ensure that neither shareholders nor creditors of the company receive anything in the liquidation.

Posted at 21:33 on Wed, 13 Sep 2017     View/Post Comments (1)     permanent link


Mon, 04 Sep 2017

The Jorda et al. estimate of the world Market Risk Premium

The Market Risk Premium (expected excess return of equities and other risky assets over risk free assets) is an important element in asset pricing models particularly the Capital Asset Pricing Model. Estimating the Market Risk Premium from historical data is very difficult because of high volatility – the sample mean over even many decades of data is subject to too large a sampling error. For example, reliable historical data on risk premiums in India goes back less than three decades, and we worry whether the realized risk premium over this period is representative of what premium will prevail in future. Data going back around a century is available for the United States, but use of this data raises serious issues of survivorship bias, as the US is clearly one of the best performing economies of the last century.

I think the NBER Conference paper by Jorda, Knoll, Schularick, Kuvshinov and Taylor “The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015” is a valuable new estimate of the Market Risk Premium. First they have put together a large sample: 16 advanced economies over almost 150 years (the length of the sample varies from country to country). Second, they compute the Market Risk Premium using not merely equities, but also housing which is the most important risky asset outside of equities. In finance theory, the Market Portfolio in theory includes all risky assets, and including housing moves the empirical estimation closer to theory. Pooling data across all countries, they arrive at the following conclusion:

In most peacetime eras this premium has been stable at about 4% – 5%. But risk premiums stayed curiously and persistently high from the 1950s to the 1970s, despite the return to peacetime. However, there is no visible long-run trend, and mean reversion appears strong. The bursts of the risk premium in the wartime and interwar years were mostly a phenomena of collapsing safe rates rather than dramatic spikes in risky rates. In fact, the risky rate has often been smoother and more stable than safe rates, averaging about 7% – 8% across all eras.

It is interesting to observe that the Capital Asset Pricing Model was created during the period of high risk premiums in the 1960s, and its obituaries started being written in the 1980s and 1990s when the risk premium collapsed to very low levels (Figure 10 in the paper).

Jorda et al. also provide an estimate of another important risk premium using the same long period multi-currency sample: the term structure premium or the liquidity risk premium (bonds versus bills). This risk premium is around 1.5% for the full sample, but somewhat larger during the last quarter century (Figure 3 of the paper).

Posted at 17:02 on Mon, 04 Sep 2017     View/Post Comments (0)     permanent link